Dear Casey. Every weekend I spend a few hours reading about climate change adaptation, and I was heartened by the fact that you've already started planning. Richmond is well-poised in many regards, but it will be hot, and feel the effects of population pressure by 2030 in probably a fairly unpleasant fashion. Norfolk and New York are doomed in the long term if just for the unbearbility of the urban heat island effect and humidity, let along flooding. Oregon is tempting, but there will be intense population pressure in the Portland-Vancouver urban corridor as California heats up.
What are your thoughts about adaptation? I think there are several to explore:
1. City hopper approach. One branch of the family moves to a pretty established city in the north with the idea that it will move up to a more important or megalopolis. The idea is to make profitable urban real estate decisions, and start community building. Think Seattle, Vancouver or Toronto becoming the next New York or L.A. Other family members drift in.
Disadvantages - land already pretty high. dependence on consumption, not necessarily producer-based.
Advantages - easy transition.
Could be used in conjunction with being poised for better scouting.
2. Town Hopper approach. One branch of the family does the same sort of thing but goes takes a smaller-town approach. I.e. Ketchican or Halifax becomes the new Norfolk. Buffalo NY could become the new Atlanta. There are lots of interesting aspects for research, as some municipalities are actively and wisely preparing for climate change.
Disadvantages - could be kind of dull?
Advantages - more affordable land
3. Pioneer approach. Go North, and set up a compound off the grid. Must have ample water, energy, and soil. Preferably naturally defensible. Leeward, storm-worthy. This could be used in conjunction with Approaches 1 and/or 2.
Disadvantages - scary and difficult
Advantages - self-sufficient, better long-term sustainability, producer-based.
There's a bunch of science stuff to look at, geology and hydrology and acquafiers to check; NOAA predictions, all sorts of survivalist tips. Much to investigate. I've got a random assortment of bookmarks and need to organize my thinking so i started this blog. You can read it and i hope participate if you like.
Anyway, in the short term, I found this kind of amazing looking deal!
11 acres, $7100... a small start.
Video tour of the area
Pretty much the thought of making a smart real estate investment in a virgin land is the best thing that keeps me from climate change despair, and the best practical way I can think of to create a better life for Jojo and Lauren and Harrison and their children, and yours and Sarah's. Get them somewhere cool and productive. We'll wait for the next NYC real estate bubble and collect rent on this place til then, and then we'll hopefully sell this place at the peak and be able to reinvest in some northern land.
Ok, peace out, bro. Stay chill!
L
I think that whatever we do should include plan C as an ultimate backup. We should also keep our kids active with camping/backpacking as well as, perhaps, orienteering. The most important thing we can do is prepare them mentally, by giving them incredible critical thinking skills. We can also prepare them physically by keeping active lifestyles and balanced nutrition. This will make them both smarter and faster to react than the rest of society, which is really the bear we have to outrun. If we can be smart enough to have our kids reach upper class, then it won't REALLY matter if they're in the best physical location, since they can just buy whatever they need.
ReplyDeleteI think that one consideration to keep in mind for this preparation gedanken is to consider the economic impacts of climate change and reorientation of the American population. Most people wont want to move, and the migration effect will be gradual. I think enough of us might even realize what is happening in time to curb it's effect (both global warming and internal migration). Meaning that both of those effects might not swing completely out of control in the next 100 years.
Homesteading is the easiest option, for sure, but it will also dramatically limit our flexibility if we're wrong about the prediction. I think we can hedge every bet, but I'm not sure yet of how.
Other things to keep in mind: In addition to warming areas, we're also going to dramatically change the weather (which is fed mostly by the atmospheric temperature). Some areas will become wetter, and other drier. Some areas will also be prone to new types of storms, with newer intensities. If we really want to keep a backup homestead (which I think we should do), then we need to consider where the world is going to be most stable, rather than just least hot.
I agree with Alaska btw. That is one area that is expected to see much more rain (meaning we don't have to drill for wells). There is also lots of cold nutrient-rich saltwater for fish and good soil for farming, so we can maintain our own healthy diets.
I'm not really expecting "the end of the world as we know it:" I don't think we need a bug-out bag or anything. But times will definitely change by the time our grand kids are going to college. I fully support thinking of ways to get us and keep us in the upper class. It is my dream to come up with a fantastically lucrative idea and endow the family. I would love for our grand kids to argue about who gets which beach/mountain/lake house on which weekend.
Love,
Casey
While I totally agree that this is probably best viewed as a 100-year plan, I also think that we will start to see the benefit of it in as few as 25; we could probably come up with some possible graphs. Totally agree about mental/physical preparation. I am not so sure homesteading is the easiest option at all (farming is hard, yo, especially in unpredictable conditions and where the days and nights will always be weird) but it could be tacked on to a vacation-home/yurt/property type of leapfrogging....
ReplyDeleteI think North America is not too badly poised for climatic stability---maybe it's not as well off as the U.K,, but we have more space and will be better able to absorb the migration up north. Where else did you have in mind?
One thing to watch out for in both situations is permafrost melt and what that means to surface water. Where permafrost is thin, tundral ponds will likely drain underneath and dry up on the surface. Thick permafrost melt is the best, though that will fill up and enlarge existing tundral ponds (and streams and rivers.) Also: check arability of topsoil, esp. w/r/t the Pre-Cambrian shield.
I am probably late to the party to actually bring in a big honking shitload of cash, but I am hoping my gift to Jojo, at least, and I hope the rest of the family, is just to get us on the road to the best geographic/cultural situation.
What is a back-up homestead? Keep 'em coming!
I told Phoebe about the Great Move North (GMN) and she was all "Montana?" No, I'm thinking. Too dry. You?